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Summary:
North Korea's decision in December 2002 to restart nuclear installations at Yongbyon that were shut down under the U.S.North Korean Agreed Framework of 1994 creates an acute foreign policy problem for the United States. North Korea's major motive appears to be to escalate pressure on the Bush Administration to negotiate over Pyongyang's proposed non-aggression pact and/or a new nuclear agreement that would provide new U.S. benefits to North Korea. However, restarting the Yongbyon facilities opens up a possible North Korean intent to stage a "nuclear breakout" of its nuclear program and openly produce nuclear weapons within six months. North Korea's actions follow the disclosure in October 2002 that North Korea is operating a secret nuclear program based on uranium enrichment and the decision by the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO) in November 2002 to suspend shipments of heavy oil to North Korea. The main elements of Bush Administration policy are (1) no negotiations or sustained dialogue with North Korea until Pyongyang satisfies U.S. concerns over its nuclear weapons program; (2) terminating the Agreed Framework; (3) assembling an international coalition to pressure North Korea. China, South Korea, and Russia have criticized the Bush Administration for not conducting a diplomatic dialogue with North Korea, and they voice opposition to economic sanctions. The Administration has placed emphasis on China as a source of pressure on North Korea. Behind these elements of policy is the Administration's intent to keep the North Korea issue under control until after the United States has dealt with Iraq. The crisis is the culmination of eight years of implementation of the 1994 Agreed Framework, which provides for the shutdown of North Korea's nuclear facilities in return for the delivery to North Korea of 500,000 tons of heavy oil and the construction in North Korea of two light water nuclear reactors. The United States pledged to issue a nuclear security guarantee to North Korea as North Korea complied with its 1992 safeguards agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency.
